Pending Home Sales Surge 7.4% in September, Marking a High Since March
Our Northwest Florida real estate team stays on top of the market. We saw good things in September and hope the trend continues. In September, pending home sales jumped 7.4% month-over-month, reaching their highest level since March, according to the National Association of Realtors® (NAR). This increase reflects a 2.6% gain compared to last year, with notable growth in the South.
National Trends in Pending Home Sales The NAR reported that all four U.S. regions saw a rise in pending transactions in September. Year-over-year, the Northeast and West posted increases, while sales in the Midwest and South remained steady.
The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), a key forward-looking indicator based on signed contracts, climbed to 75.8 in September, up from 78.3 in March. An index reading of 100 represents the average contract activity level of 2001.
According to Lawrence Yun, NAR’s Chief Economist, “Contract signings rose across all regions as buyers took advantage of lower late-summer mortgage rates and expanded inventory.” Yun anticipates continued gains if job growth remains steady, inventory increases, and mortgage rates stabilize.
Outlook for Economic and Housing Trends Looking forward, Yun expects slower home price appreciation and rising sales over the next two years. He predicts existing-home sales will recover from the sluggish activity of 2023 and 2024, with transactions expected to reach 4.47 million in 2025 and surpass 5 million in 2026. Home prices are forecasted to align more closely with consumer price trends as more inventory reaches the market, with the median existing-home price estimated to reach $410,700 in 2025 and $420,000 in 2026.
For mortgage rates, Yun projects a decrease in the annual 30-year fixed rate to 5.9% in 2025, followed by a slight increase to 6.1% in 2026.
Regional Breakdown of Pending Home Sales The regional performance varied, with each area showing robust growth:
Northeast: The PHSI rose 6.5% month-over-month to 65.6, marking a 3.3% increase from September 2023.
Midwest: The index increased 7.1% to 75.0, mirroring last year’s numbers.
South: Sales inched up 6.7% to an index of 89.0, holding steady with last year.
West: The PHSI saw the largest growth, surging 9.8% to 64.0, which is 12.3% higher than in September 2023.
Understanding the Pending Home Sales Index The PHSI serves as a leading indicator in the housing market by tracking pending sales, defined as transactions with signed contracts that have not yet closed. Typically, sales close within a month or two, though delays can occur due to financing, inspection, or appraisal challenges.
This index covers approximately 40% of multiple listing service data, with historical analysis showing that contract activity trends align closely with closed sales within the following two months. Data provided by NAR. If you would like to discuss your Florida real estate needs please call our top producing real estate team. Feel free to check your value below. This is our most accurate automated valuation. It's easy, free, and informative.
